123. Monte Carlo Fallacy

If the wheel in a casino shows up even numbers 9 consecutive times, what will be the next number shown? Will it be even or odd? Most people will guess that the next number will be odd, according to the Law of Averages.

Statisticians call this as “Monte Carlo Fallacy”. In fact the Law of Averages does not exist! There is no unseen influence, which would try to balance the wheel’s past and future spins, to guarantee that the odd numbers and the even numbers show up equally frequently!

The wheel always comes up with random numbers. Whenever an event occurs, that is completely unpredictable based on its context, it is called a random event.

Randomness is very important in many games and in the several surveys conducted for various purposes. If the persons are not picked up at random, the results of the surveys will be misleading, inaccurate and completely useless.

Visalakshi Ramani


16 Responses to 123. Monte Carlo Fallacy

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